Friday, October 7, 2016

You ever watch a campaign die in real time?


So today was neat.

It started with news that Russia had lodged a formal complaint with the UN to make representatives stop being mean to Donald Trump.

Then the US government formally accused Russia of hacking the DNC and election offices.

Then Donald Trump decided in an interview that today is a good time to remind us all that he thinks the Central Park Five, the group of black men who were falsely accused and then exonerated of raping a white woman, should still be in jail, this despite the fact that the actual rapist was convicted on DNA evidence a long time ago.

Florida governor and obsessive Voldemort cosplayer Rick Scott informed the world that despite the hurricane fucking everything up in FL, voter registration deadlines remain the same, which given the vast disparity in new registration between Democrats and Republicans so far seems a poor strategic move, but whatever.

The RNC cancelled about six million dollars in ad buys in Florida, a sign that their own internal polling thinks the state is out of reach now, and if that is out of reach, then so is the election, particularly when...

A clip of Donald Trump from eleven years ago surfaces in which he describes how being a celebrity means you can get away with sexual assault all the time, for more details read the link, as it contains quotes that I do not are to type out myself.

This was followed by a terrible written non-apology from the campaign, and then an even worse video statement like eight hours later that turned into what amounts to a campaign speech.

Donal Trump fucking lost this election, and he is bringing the GOP down with him, I can honestly say I don't know how this will shake up, but literally any result might be on the board now. Elected representatives are pulling endorsements and fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, basically Utah's entire group of state reps has unendorsed, and others seem likely to follow. There are rumors that the RNC is trying to work out if it can replace Trump at this stage(hint: it can't) and a number of legitimate politicians on both sides of the aisle are calling for him to drop out entirely, which, to put it mildly, would be problematic for the election as basically the ballots are printed now and there is no mechanism for selecting a new candidate.

This election was always going to be won or lost on the shoulders of the minority and women vote, Trump had basically cemented his status as persona non grata with the majority of minority groups in the US, but had a surprisingly strong support among women voters, even despite his well documented attacks on various women just in the last year. The difference today is that this cannot be played as anything but rampant misogyny and bragging about sexual assault, this was no political discussion, no stump speech or debate where you can claim being taken out of context, this was a man simply sitting and telling another man(Billy Bush, yes, one of those Bushes) that he can grope and harass women with no consequence. Not just telling, but bragging, you can't spin it, he is bragging, there is no other explanation possible. You can't even use the "I was young, and have learned since then", at the time of the clip the man was nearly sixty and on his third wife! Newly married even!

There is an argument to be made that he isn't wrong, and that you can get away with that shit if you are a celebrity, I would go farther and say that you can generally get away with it even if you aren't, this is true and kind of a massive problem, but again, he wasn't complaining here, he is totally happy with his freedom to be a creepy shithead and would like to continue thank you very much.

I don't know how you measure it, but this might have been the worst day for a campaign ever, outside of the days when a candidate literally gets shot or something. Trump won't lose all of his support of course, and Clinton won't gain all that he does lose, but enthusiasm is a big part of turnout, and Trump supporters staying home or voting third party is almost as good for the Clinton campaign, my bet is, given their rapid response to the video, that the Clinton camp had a hand in its release too.

There is so much of this, we could see an equally damaging news item every day from now until the end of the election(just over a month!) We won't because for them to be effective they need a few days each to sink in, but the Trump campaign is on life support at this point, an the RNC is best described in picture form.


Meanwhile at the Clinton campaign:


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