The importance of data

I have been pretty consistent in saying that I think the election is going to be a blowout, and by that I mean a 400+EV victory for Hillary Clinton, something that hasn't been seen since the Reagan era. My reasons have been consistent too, I believe the polling companies aren't accounting for what I suspect will be significantly increased minority turnout, plus I just don't think the Republican base is very excited to be here this year, outside of the hardcore Trump supporters of course.

There is another reason though, the Clinton campaign and the DNC are putting a fair amount of effort into states that aren't historically very likely to go blue, places like Arizona, there is even some work going on in Texas, now a good argument can be made that the campaign doesn't expect to win there, and is only doing this to exploit their massive cash advantage over the RNC and force them to put resources into "safe" states, but what if there is another reason?

A brief digression, it bears mentioning that the Clinton campaign is inheriting a GOTV organization that is without equal in the world, among the legacies Barack Obama is leaving is a robust, motivated, and well funded network that can reach across all fifty states and has access to data at a level we can barely comprehend, what is more, it is staffed by competent, motivated, people who have secure positions and are paid to consider long term effects when campaigning.

This information had uses beyond just targeting voters, they could, and did, build extremely accurate models for how voting could go in state level races as well. Put simply, the DNC is likely in possession of the most accurate data on voters and potential voters in the world, and probably will be for some time. What's more, they have an organization that knows how to use it, beyond simply calling potential voters and offering rides to polling stations, beyond targeted voter registration drive, they can use their data to build web sites targeted to specific subgroups, provide targeted adds via email or local TV and radio listings, and so on. For all we know they know everyone's exact fetish and could pair you up with a campaign volunteer who shares it if it will get you to the polls.

This is not a common thing, campaigns used to largely build their own databases and GOTV campaigns, and did not share information even with their own party, the fact that the Democrats are doing this and the Republicans are not, or cannot, is an advantage that traditional polling does not have a way to account for.

So when I see a campaign office open in Arizona, I have to ask myself "What does the internal polling say?" Because with growing Hispanic populations, a Republican candidate designed to scare people away from him, and a terrifyingly good PR campaign steadily increasing the favorable's of Clinton, there is every chance that the campaign believes the state could flip.

This applies in the House and Senate races too, particularly with regards to depressed turnout from the Republican side, I am largely confident that the Senate goes blue this year, and while I suspect the same is not true of the House, I do think it gets closer than most expect.

This is fun, see if I am wrong, and I very well could be, and the elections is decided largely at the level the polls are at now, then Clinton basically wins with 90's Clinton levels of EVs and the Dems still get the Senate, which is not a bad thing by any stretch.