Tuesday, April 19, 2016

NY Primary predictions



Here we go again folks. The NY primary for both Democrats and Republicans tomorrow, well really later today. I have predictions:

For the Republicans: Trump wins, but does he win each district with enough to trigger winner take all and sweep the votes? Current polling suggests he might, but he consistently underperfoms his polls and while it isn't by much, I think it drops him far enough for delegates to be distributed proportionally in at least a few districts, plus he referred to 9/11 as 7/11 today, which may end up being a relevant gaffe given the state he's trying to win.
Cruz pulls a distant second, as New Yorkers, along with most right thinking sentient beings and most animals except possibly the unseen Deep Ones who are his true family, hate him a great deal.
That said, he has a much better campaign organization than Trump does, and he should pull enough away to compete a little bit if not for:
Kasich, who incredibly is still in the race and his votes will come from people who mostly would prefer Cruz, the question is will he pull enough away from Cruz to give Trump the entire 97 delegates? I suspect not

Remember that I am not saying Cruz will win NY, I am just saying he might keep Trump from winning everything there, which is all Cruz is playing for at this point, he doesn't need to actually win states anymore, he just needs to keep Trump from dominating the delegate count until the convention and I think he is going to pull it off.

Meanwhile the Democrats. Man I wish I could say Sanders will win, but I don't think he will, Clinton has the edge in polling and name recognition, and it seems that New Yorkers view her as more of a native than Sanders even though he was actually born there. I give it to Clinton, Sanders performs better than expected, but not enough to keep it close there, if I am wrong nothing will make me happier.

No comments: