Monday, April 18, 2016

Trump and Sanders have the same problem

Our two "outsider candidates from both parties have remarkably similar complaints about the rigged systems that are working against them. Both are riding an unexpectedly large groundswell of support and both of them are people their parties under no circumstances want in power.

The Democrats don't want Sanders because they have spent the last twenty years forging their coalition into the most conservative, unexciting, predictable party ever, their support is solid from the financial sector because they can be counted on to do nothing to seriously hurt it, and their comparatively liberal social policies mean the average voter will like them and buy the party line that they are for freedom and equality while not realizing that without fixing the economic system, or tearing it apart, neither of those things will actually happen.

The Republican establishment meanwhile sees a Trump candidacy as a death knell for their party, him running probably guarantees a Democratic president, as well as a high likelihood of loosing the Senate with an outside chance of losing the House as well. Trumps platform has had unconcealed disdain for the establishment as it's central tenet since he started his run and his presence will provoke the opposition to vote against him, as well as depress turnout from the not Trump supporting GOP voters.
Of course, Cruz is not any better for the GOP in the presidential race, like at all, but he might be less damaging to the downticket races, but that isn't the point today.

Both candidates complain that the system is rigged, and they are exactly right. The Superdelegate system the Democrats use is there for the express purpose of ignoring the wishes of the voters so they can protect the interests of the financiers instead. The GOP does not have a system like that, though I bet they will after this election, but instead rely on rules trickery to prevent insurgent candidates from being effective, as they did in 2008 when they instituted Rule 40 to prevent Ron Paul's name from being put on the first ballot.

The difference though is that Sanders is under no illusions about how the game is played, and even if he loses, he still wins because his minimum goal was to start national conversations and pull Clinton to the left a bit. That said he still knows the system and has a campaign that is working the angles as much as possible, attempting to snag delegates anywhere he can.
Trump meanwhile hasn't even been trying it seems, Sanders is criticized as being naive with his policy goals, but Trump is actually naive in that he seems to think that advertising and rallies are all you need for a successful campaign, when in fact you still need people who know the specific delegate rules of each and every state to make sure you get people who will vote your way. He hasn't even really tried for any of those, and as his losses mount he has taken to complaining instead of building contacts to change them.

At this point he probably doesn't win the nomination on the first ballot, unless he does extremely well in all counties and boroughs of California and New York, also Indiana is a wild card as literally no polling has been done there as of this writing, these three states will decide the nomination and so far it is looking like a contested convention, which means it's a Cruz nomination if we get to a second ballot, unless a completely new candidate is nominated from the floor.

So Trump's complaining comes off a lot more as that of someone who hasn't read the rules and expects that to be his sole defense, whereas Sanders gets to be the mature voice of someone who knows the system and wants it changed based on that.

There are a lot more differences of course, but that is the one I was considering today.

Wednesday can't come soon enough.

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