Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Stock market blame game

The stock market is going for a ride and I saw an article from USA Today about it yesterday, it had a headline something like "Trump has claimed credit for the stock markets recent gains, will he accept blame for the plunge?"

No.

The answer is no, this is a stupid article with a stupid premise and anyone who really thinks that is a real question is also stupid, obviously he isn't going to take the blame for it, when has he ever accepted blame, or even responsibility, for anything even vaguely negative? This shouldn't be a topic of conversation anymore, the president is a narcissist, whether clinically or otherwise and that isn't part of his personality.

That said, the stick market likely isn't his fault, as much as I hate to admit it, we can lay many of the gains in the last year on the continuation of Obama era policies, but over the recent months I think we have to admit that the market has been rising due specifically to actions taken by the current administration such as the new tax plan. I don't hold with the idea that the stock market is an accurate representation of America's financial health, and neither should you, but the reality of it is that workforce participation is also high, and wages made a larger than expected increase this year as well.

Those are strong signals that much of the economy is fine, but the issue is that when things look better at the bottom, then the top kind of plummets, this is fine and good and represents companies thinking a little more about putting money into employees. Also it is not something the administration can really take credit for, unlike with the stock market the policies instituted over the last year haven't exactly been favorable to workers. But the unemployment rate is dropping as it has since the recession ended, and we are now at the point where enough skilled people are employed that the desperation for a job, any job, isn't there anymore, not on a large scale at least, which means if a company needs to attract a skilled worker, then they need to offer incentives to get that worker to come to them, which means spending money, which means they need capital, which means they sell stock.

I do feel like we will see a real bubble burst and another recession before long, but I don't think what we saw over the last few days is it.

No comments: