A primer on impeachment.

I talked earlier about why impeachment might not be a good idea, or at least why the timing of "as soon as possible" might not be, but I feel like we should talk about the process itself, many people seem to be of the idea that when you impeach somebody it is the same thing as removing them from office or convicting them of a crime, when actually it totally isn't.

You can think of impeachment as something along the lines of an indictment, when a group such as a grand jury collectively decides there is enough evidence to bring charges against the accused. The group that decides that in the case of the president is the House of Representative, and Articles of Impeachment, essentially the formal charges, require a simple majority of votes present to be presented.

At this point the president is technically impeached, the "trial" is held in the Senate and decides if there is enough evidence to warrant the removal of the president, Bill Clinton was impeached by the House in the 90s, but acquitted by the Senate. Impeachment is essentially the process by which charges are allowed to be brought against the president.

The Senate takes on the role of Jury in a lot of ways, with the judge being the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, the House, in the form of assigned officers called Managers, play the role of the prosecution, presenting evidence, calling and examining witnesses, and so on. The defendant is allowed lawyers of their own and to cross examine, call witnesses, and present evidence of their own.

It requires a two-thirds majority to convict in the Senate, and if that happens the president is removed from office and prevented from holding it ever again. This has of course never happened, Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were both acquitted, while Nixon resigned before he could be impeached. If it does happen then power devolves to the Vice President, in our case Mike Pence.

You notice Mr. Pence has been awfully quiet these last few weeks? There is a man who is hoping no one notices him before he gets in the top seat.

It is entirely possible, even probable, that there are more people in the administration, such as Pence, who have been involved in things worthy of impeachment, the special counsel appointed today has broad powers to investigate and recommend charges, and possible outcomes could include targeting the president, or the vice president, or members of his staff, or all of the above, however impeachment is not a group process from what I can figure out, and articles must be presented for each person the House chooses to try.

The odds? If the vote was held tomorrow I think the House does present articles of impeachment, it only requires a simple majority, and there are a lot of Republican reps that are pretty vulnerable at the moment, plus they know that the Senate will under no circumstances vote to convict, so it is a pretty risk free maneuver for them, that said the vote won't be held tomorrow, or even next week or month, if it happens within a year I would be incredibly surprised. It is really going to hinge on two things: What they investigation uncovers, and what The Toddler does in the meantime, if the investigation uncovers nothing(incredibly unlikely) then he's safe unless he just flat out says on live TV that he totes worked with Russia or something, which to be honest is not outside the realm of possibility. If he holds it together though, then we gotta wait on the investigation, and while I know we all want things to happen fast, that investigation is going to be pretty fucking slow people. Not because it's run by partisan assholes, but because it has consequences that directly effect the direction and leadership of this country, a competent investigation is going to take the time to get everything right.

So buckle in.