Death is Certain

 
People are feeling a bit freaked out right now, it has been a rough week or two on the politics front for Clinton and the polls are closer than they have been in a couple months, with Trump even showing leads in Florida and Ohio, not huge leads, and not in all polls, but still concerning. I wish I could say there is no cause for alarm, but I can't, the idea that nearly half of voters can be exposed to the man for over a year now and not instinctively want to cast him out tells me there is something deeply wrong with white America, yes I say white because lets be honest here, it isn't going to be the Black or Hispanic vote that wins this thing for Trump. If he wins, it will be due to the white voters revealing themselves to be incredibly racist on the part of the Trump supporters, and incredibly unmotivated and stupid on the part of the liberal coalition and he would win despite the efforts of the minority communities, not because of them.

Now I say there is cause for alarm and it's true, but I want to elaborate on that, the alarm I feel is not that Trump will win, because I still hold to my prediction of 400+ electoral college votes for Clinton, I am alarmed because there are a lot of unpredictable racists and bigots out there who are all in for Trump and may do things like hang out at polling places in Black neighborhoods to "keep an eye out for fraud", and come the day after the election, these people are going to be pissed as hell and most of them own an unreasonable number of firearms(one or more).

Here's the thing about the polls: They fluctuate, and especially in an election like this where a lot rides on the millenial age group and both candidates are not well liked by even their own sides. There are a ton of undecideds in the polls, and a large percentage of those are people who will simply end up voting party line come the day but are just so uninspired they don't say it when polled, I personally think there are more of those for Clinton than there are for Trump, but I suppose we will find out soon enough on that count, less than two months by the way. So yeah a natural variance in the polls plus of course the backlash for Clinton being ill and her "deplorables" comment account for the new closeness.

Long term it is meaningless, and by that I mean more than a couple weeks, if Clinton makes a full recovery she will be unaffected by the sickness thing, and Trump is not without criticism there if the Democrats choose to make an attack anyway, which wouldn't be their best play so I suspect they just let is slide. As for deplorables, well, I think that this will end up being a net positive for the Clinton campaign, at the same time as GOP establishment members are condemning her for her attack on Trump supporters, a good many of them are embracing the label and putting out product with it, even the Trump campaign is too, the problems with that are twofold, first, deplorable isn't actually a compliment no matter how you try to make a joke about it, and I don't think that in general people will react well to a candidate who's supporters enthusiastically embrace a label like that, the second is that those who are embracing the label most vigorously include the likes of David Duke, noted ex Klansman and current completely out and proud white supremacist, who has become an extremely vocal supporter of Trump over the year.

While a great many people are racist, not quite as many are comfortable with the Klan and overt white supremacy, they prefer their racism to be the more subtle, and deniable variety that lets them think they are good people while they choose neighborhoods far away from the brown people as possible. People like Duke turn people like that off, and especially if the candidate doesn't strongly and repeatedly slap him down when he speaks up they can and will associate him with the Trump campaign

In short, polls alarming but not apocalyptic, racism still bad, election still probably going to be okay, but just to be sure, get out and vote anyway.