Trump roundup

Things continue to go south for Donald Trump, polling is trending steadily towards Clinton as Sanders supporters begin accepting defeat barring some miracle with a contested convention and move towards the lesser evil instead. So far it appears that Sanders supporters are going to Clinton over Trump at about a rate of six to one, which has to be acceptable for Hillary given her pretty terrible favorables. Trump however is increasingly seen as unlikable, even more so than Clinton, even within his own party. He's losing in virtually all categories you could mention, minorities (all of them) women by about sixty points, even the over sixties crowd leans Clinton by a few points.

The one great fear I had was that a Muslim ISIS sympathizer would commit a major act of terror on American soil and allow an opening for Trump to hammer the national security angle, then of course Orlando happened.

And he fucked it up, he made possibly the worst first reaction possible by accepting congratulations as his first public response to the shooting, then he followed it up with incoherent, even for him, attacks on the administration, and the met with the NRA to talk about gun control. The polling trends have gone even farther down since Sunday and honestly he isn't showing signs of bottoming out yet.

His problems don't end there, and to be fair aren't his alone, the RNC and notable Republicans also screwed the pooch with the shooting reaction, especially by voting against an LGBT protection bill the day after the shooting, but also by basically all but disavowing their candidate, seriously it is hard to find a party official willing to comment on Trump right now, and some have said they won't talk about it until after the election in November. Right now they are showing all the signs of someone who is regretting their choice, from the RNC setting up donation lines that guarantee the money won't be used to Trump, to people like Ted Cruz who still refuse to endorse him, even to Paul Ryan, who has endorsed him but refuses to actually say anything in support. It appears to me that the establishment is attempting to cut its losses and is essentially giving up the presidency this year.

If they do eliminate the funding that most campaigns rely on, Trump is in for a really hard time of it, Clinton has more staff on the ground in Ohio that Trump has in the entire nation. And Trump can say that this means he just runs a lean and efficient campaign and that Clinton is trying too hard, but all she has to say is "Donald, shouldn't someone who wants to be president of the USA be someone who tries hard?"
He doesn't have the infrastructure to get out the vote, and without the support of the RNC I don't see how he gets it.

All in all, I am feeling pretty good about the campaign at the moment, if trends hold we are looking at a 400+EV showing from Clinton this fall, and down-ticket it seems that both houses might actually be in play, I don't know what the GOP can do to stop the slide as Trump doesn't seem interested in working with anyone or coordinating campaigns, or even moderating his message at all.

One option would be an exciting VP pick, this is what I bet most people are hoping for and it is by far the least interesting one, I don't think any VP choice is going to attract voters to the ticket unless that VP promises to the destroy Trump and take his power, now Trump has as say in this, but so does the RNC, and they might end up picking for him if they don't like his choices. What will his choice be? I have no idea, Newt Gingrich is polling surprisingly well and by popularity might be the establishment pick, and Trump seems to be friendly with him as well, but the names Bachmann, Cain, and even Trump(his son) have been floated and I could see him going that way too. Honestly though I doubt anyone can predict it, it is going to be somebody completely out of left field who makes no sense at all.

Then the convention comes, all options are on the table at this point, a rules change to screw Trump out of the nomination is not beyond the realm of possibility, options to select in his place include Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, of the two my guess would be Romney, not that he would win, but his selection would send a message to the voters that the party is attempting to correct its course and might help the down-ticket races. Alternatively a full blown riot and the dissolution of the RNC as a functional entity is also on the table even if no screwjob is planned.

I don't know what will happen, I can't even attempt to predict it, I only know it is going to be even stranger than any of us can imagine.