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No big thoughts tonight, the election is shaping up to be pretty interesting once we get past the conventions, Trump is... not holding up well against increasingly coordinated attacks from the Democrats and unlike the Republican field, it is clear they have actually done their opposition research as we are starting to see additional horrible things the man has said leak into the news media.

Meanwhile, Trump doesn't seem interested in putting together a real campaign so far, not sure why, perhaps he thinks the RNC will do it for him, or the media will continue to provide him enough coverage to make up for lack of support, this shows that he doesn't actually know what it takes to run a campaign, but media coverage is pretty guaranteed to happen, however I don't think it will work out well for him as we are discovering that his reactions to being attacked are increasingly hilarious and newsworthy, and his definition of an attack is extremely loose and seems to include both actual comments directed at him as well as questions about things like policies or things he said a minute ago.

The convention is going to be pretty insane, and I still don't discount the chance of a revolt from the rules committee or the delegates, or both, but even assuming that doesn't happen, I expect a minimal level of support from the RNC for his campaign, unless he manages to get on message and stop being insane in ways the party doesn't agree with, they may cut their losses and focus on the down-ticket races, which wouldn't be a terrible play, last time around a billion dollars was spent on Romney's campaign, that billion dollars could have a pretty large impact if it is focused on the smaller races, and the GOP will need an impact because thanks to the obstructionism in congress, particularly surrounding the Supreme Court they have put themselves in a really vulnerable position in the Senate, with an outside chance of loosing congress too.

Messaging is gonna be rough, the Democrats have a campaign dream team, assuming Sanders ends up toeing the line after the convention we will have Obama/Biden, both Clintons, Elizabeth Warren, and Sanders lining up against Trump and whatever surrogates are able to work with him, now the Dem side is a pretty strong line up, each has different strengths but they are all strong speakers and able to throw out a quotable one liner in a pinch while also being able to ignore stupid personal attacks, Trump is... unable to do that, and if he holds to his current policy of not letting anyone other than himself speak for the campaign, he will lose the messaging battle quite thoroughly.

I'm looking forward to it.