Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Democrazy... amirite?

Wisconsin voted today, Cruzand Sanders won their respective parties, with Trumpplacing a distant, very distant, second and Hillary coming in sorta closing on the the Dem side.

Both these situations are pretty close to ideal for me, Trump will end up with either 3 or 6 delegates, depending on how much fuckery takes place with assignments and vote counting, this actually cuts, not a lot, but not a trivial amount either, into his pace to reach 1237 delegates, remember that is the number he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot at the convention without overtly being screwed out of it, which is still on the table apparently given how much Paul Ryan's name comes up as a possible option for a contested convention. Trump needs to perform really well in New York and California in the upcoming months, and not tank too badly everywhere else to secure it at this rate.

Meanwhile Sanders overperformed again, but the Democrats system of delegate proportioning means that his lead isn't as big as one might think there, but it is a clear and solid victory, and will go very well to feed the narrative in the upcoming weeks, his momentum is strong enough that the major news outlets are having a difficult time not acknowledging it, and he is seeing more coverage both good and bad, Clinton for her part has been really pretty bad at this campaigning thing, her attacks on Sanders have been sort of random and easy to disprove, and she just doesn't seem to be campaigning as much as she is riding her organization, which is fine, her organization is hella robust and well put together, but if that is going to be her plan, she needs to stick with it and not open her mouth to generate easy attacks.

As I keep saying, I don't count Sanders out, especially if opinion keeps turning like it seems to have been these last couple weeks, but the Superdelegate issue is a tough hill to climb and this one may come down to the convention as well.

It is interesting to me that, thus far at least, the Republicans have run a more honest election than the Dems, at least so far as things like caucuses and primary voting organization anyway. One of the Clinton campaigns strategies seems to include light voter suppression in the cities, with hours for polls being limited, and ballots mysteriously running out despite advance polls showing nearly unprecedented interest in voting. Of course the polling stations aren't managed by the campaigns but rather the DNC so it is also clear the Dem establishment knows who they want. Despite all that my man has a chance which is cool. So far the Republicans haven't been complaining about similar tactics, except for Trump who has cried about unfair treatment for so long now that I am surprised a wolf hasn't eaten him.
Mind you, democracy dies at the convention for the Republicans, while the Democrats have a chance to maintain in there, so I guess we'll see.

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