First we have this from a speech JEB! did earlier:
Watch it please, it is only thirty seconds or so, and it may just be the saddest thing you see all year. But don't feel too bad for him, he is still a terrible person only made pitiable by the over the top super villains he is running against.
The other thing I want to talk about about is the election, since Iowa three candidates have dropped out; Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee. I never wrote much about these guys in depth and I won't here either, what matters to me is who they intend to endorse during the primary, Huckabee has not officially endorsed anyone to my knowledge, but he did show submission to Trump when Trump did his poorly thought out competing event during the debate last week and Huckabee also really wants to be Trump so I think he endorses there.
Interestingly, Santorum also attended that event, but he just endorsed Marco Rubio as of a few hours ago. Santorum in a lot of ways is a mini Ted Cruz, but he hasn't burned all of his political bridges and somehow still has allies in the party leadership despite being irrelevant, and an asshole.
Rand Paul has not endorsed anyone, and I suspect he won't, though him lining up behind Rubio is a not terribly far-fetched idea.
National polling outfit Public Policy Polling will be releasing a national poll tomorrow, they are indicating it will show a significant drop in Trump's lead, he will still be in the lead, but the field will have tightened up greatly. There are no New Hampshire polls out yet but if you go by the national poll(you shouldn't, this is just a wild theory based on the trend I am seeing) my predictions for NH are still on track.
Rubio also snagged an endorsement from the House Freedom Caucus today, who are a pretty influential part of the party leadership, this plus Santorum leads me to believe that they are giving up on JEB! at this point and have selected Rubio as the most electable and controllable of the options left on the board.
So far it is looking like Trump's stumble is gonna cost him, and it makes sense, the guy ran with the persona of someone who is the best, an always a winner, his fans buy into it, so when he loses, they remember. He made a gracious speech after the caucuses admitting defeat, but all his fans see is capitulation, he should have immediately began railing against Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and the Republican establishment and accused them of fixing the voting, which would allow his supporters to still believe in his invincibility without having to actually be invincible. If I had to guess I'd say he was trying to pivot left to make dissaffected liberals feel less badabout voting for him, but he did it to soon and forgot, or didn't realize his base wasn't interested in rationality in time.
Staying with my predictions for next week, Cruz 1st, Rubio(strong) second, and Trump a somewhat less strong third.
No comments:
Post a Comment