RIP Antonin Scalia, well no, suffer eternally.

There was a debate tonight, I didn't watch it, I am on vacation with Zena, but the debate wasn't the most interesting or politically relevant thing to happen in America today.

Today Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died of natural causes while in a lodge on a hunting trip, he was 79. It is impossible to overstate the importance of this, but first my personal reaction.

I don't like taking joy in the death of anyone, but that doesn't mean I don't, and today I feel less bad about it than I normally do, Scalia was a reactionary old dinosaur who voted in lockstep with the desires of the GOP with no regard to actual constitutional law, legal precedent, morality, or justice. It is thanks to him and others like him that Bush V Gore turned out the way it did in 2000, and it is thanks to him and others like him that the Citizens United decision was made, nearly crippling the ability of those who aren't rich to compete politically. The man spent thirty years fighting progress desperately, indirectly causing harm and death to millions in this country and around the world, and the world is a better place without him in it, my only regret is that he waited this long to kick the bucket.

But his life may not be his most impactfull legacy, his death drastically changes the political landscape in America, and not just because the change of balance on the Supreme Court means some of his past decisions may be taken up again, but it means a lot for the election season, not so much with the presidency, but this can and will effect down ticket races in a way that not too many have considered yet.

First the practical, with eight members the court is now evenly divided between Democrat and Republican picks, from what I understand, and I am not an expert so this may be incorrect, they can still make rulings and they are still considered law, but in the case of a tie, the decision reverts to whatever lower court ruling sent it up in the first place, and isn't fully binding until a full court rules on it. In practice this will deadlock the court on major cases until it is resolved, so it should be in everybody's interest that a new nominee is chosen swiftly.

But that isn't the case at all, the President appoints the nominee, and it first must be accepted by the Senate Judiciary Committee, Ted Cruz is a member of that committee, so you can imagine how likely anyone Obama picks will make it through, then it must be voted on in the Senate, the Democrats have 46 seats at the moment, and need 60 for a filibuster proof majority to secure a nomination. This will also not happen at this time, Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, is already pushing for filling the vacancy to wait until the next president is elected. That would be a mistake, the GOP would be put in the role of obstructionists, there is no way around it, they would be the ones explicitly rejecting action and literally preventing the proper running of government, our Senate approval ratings are already pretty fucking low, how pumped are Republicans going to be to go out and vote for a Senator who is actively obstructing doing things? Versus how pumped the Democrats are going to be to go out and vote against that? It's a crisis tailor made to be a nightmare for the GOP.

It'll effect the presidential race too, Obama can(and should) keep the Senate in for special sessions  over the summer break rather than letting them fuck off for a month, given the fact that everyone hates the Senate, and the Republican portion is being asshats, this won't do anything but make the president more popular and set up the democrat nominee to inherit a portion of that popularity.

It is honestly in the Republican's best interest to allow an Obama pick through, and sooner rather than later so the public can forget about it in time for the election, yeah they lose out on a majority in the Supreme Court, but the consequences of not doing so might gut their majority in the senate, and if as I suspect a Democrat is elected in November, they still lose their majority anyway, unless they want to try putting the selection off for four years, which would be insane.

But they won't, and even if McConnell and the Senate Republicans change tack and try, they will run into an obstacle named Ted Cruz, remember that he is on the Judiciary committee, the first roadblock to a nominee, and is no stranger to working against the parties' interest if it will lead to a short term gain for him, and make no mistake doing so will help him in the primary because of the strange attraction the fringe has for him, seeing him fight the establishment will only cement him as a leader in their minds, rather than an obstructionist evil blobfish.

This election just got weird(er) folks, I am excited!