Monday, February 15, 2016

How Trump may actually be helping.

One thing that has been interesting me about this primary season, on both sides, is the messaging is not as controlled as you usually see in politics, in both races there are candidates who bluntly and forcefully speak against policies and people in their own party, it feels more genuine than politics as usual tend to be and it is kind of refreshing.

In the debate last night, as well as recent interviews, Donald Trump has begun attacking the Bush family on the Iraq War, specifically decrying it as unnecessary and directly accusing George W. and his administration of responsibility for the 9/11 attack by way of ignoring intelligence. Trump is a lot of things, including a hypocrite, as he seems to have supported the war in the past, but he isn't wrong here and I tend to believe his thoughts on the Bush family are honestly held as he seems quite genuinely upset about it, and that would go a long way towards explaining his extreme animosity towards JEB!, who he has attacked relentlessly despite him not really being a threat since around the second debate. But he is also willing to break with party policy on other lines as well, specifically on social issues like abortion and gay marriage which it appears to me he simply doesn't care about at all.

Don't get me wrong, Trump would be almost the worst possible leader of the country and my comments should not be taken as a compliment or an endorsement, but the fact remains that an outsider candidate is a firm favorite for the nomination despite having a platform(such as it is) that is markedly different than one the establishment would prefer. And he isn't beating around the bush about it either, whatever he does if he gets the presidency shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone after this race.

Meanwhile Bernie Sanders has taken a similar approach, with an outsiders perspective and a willingness to talk about the policies of his own party in a negative light as well, it's a discussion that needs to happen. Understand I am not saying there isn't a difference in the parties here, the Democrats are by far the least likely candidates to destroy the world, but they have been moving closer together, especially in the last couple decades, at least in regards to the tactics they use.

Reagan famously instituted an "11th" commandment which went: Though shalt not speak ill of another Republican. And the tactic worked for a while, the party marching in lockstep really helped unify their message and paper over the flaws in their horrible candidates, meanwhile the Democratic machine took a while longer to learn the same lessons, really getting it together only in the last ten to fifteen years. But eventually people start to stop caring as their choices became less and less distinct an refused to even attempt to make definitive statements on anything, instead speaking as generally as possible in the hopes of appealing to their own parties power blocs, rather than distinguishing themselves from their opponents.
The lack of distinction drives down voter turnout, and that helps the GOP usually, but demographic shifts are threatening them even with all that, although without turnout, the Democrats will take a fair bit of time to catch up, however this election is showing cracks in both parties systems. It turns out that populist candidates can gain a fair bit of support, despite the farfetchedness of their polices, by appearing honest and at odds with the system itself.

In a way, Trump and Sanders' support comes from the same group of people, those who feel that the current system doesn't represent them, and in fact there is a surprising amount of crossover support between the two candidates, with many Sanders supporters saying they would vote Trump if Bernie didn't get in, and vice versa. Which is dumb, as their positions are pretty much opposites, also Sanders appears to be mostly sane, but it points to what a lot of people feel is the most important aspect of a candidate, being someone who tells the truth without equivocation.
I would like to say that this could be a sign of a trend happening, that our political dialogue will become a bit more earthy and accessible, an also that this is sign that the major parties control over the process is damaged, perhaps irreparably, and perhaps it is, but this is only one primary season, albeit the most interesting one we have had in a long time, and it still has plenty of time to return to business as usual, but if it doesn't? Things would be looking interesting and positive in a way that hasn't happened for a long time.

And if nothing else, we can thank Donald Trump for helping that happen, which might make up for every other way he is awful in the end.

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