So you may recall I guessed we'd see:
Cruz: 28
Rubio:24
Trump:23
Everyone else: who cares, sub 10%
Results are in and I was a wrong as it was possible to be, I still think Trump lost a great deal of momentum in the last two debates an the loss in Iowa, but I don't think I really understood how much New Hampshire likes the outsider candidate, so our top three look like this roughly:
Trump: 35
Kasich(!?): 16
Cruz: 11.5
Rubio came in at fifth place, just after JEB!
New Hampshire is a weird state, that is my excuse, also it is really white, South Carolina is up next and my prediction might end up being more accurate for that, but really no one knows, it is proving very hard to gauge how much of Trump's support will actually turn out for him, and that makes basing it off of polls pretty difficult, which is why you really shouldn't listen to pundits.
I am both disappointed and pleased by these results, on the one hand Trump is getting dull, still kind of terrifying but he's so repetitive it is no longer any fun to listen to him, and he has nothing new to react to, so him having more attention sucks. On the other hand, Rubio hit fifth place, which amuses me and shows that a lot of people paid attention to his abysmal performance at the debate. JEB! hit fourth, and with his money that has to be disappointing, and Cruz performing 16 odd points below my prediction was a pleasant surprise as well, as he is probably the worst person in the world.
On the Dem side, Sanders takes a 20+ point victory over Clinton, a solid win was expected based on the polls, but he still outperformed, unfortunately due to Superdelegates, who are not required to vote based on the popular vote, he doesn't actually gain a lead there, as they are all pretty solidly establishment folks, he's got a big hill to climb but if he can consistently outperform his polls like this then he just might take it, we'll see going into South Carolina, pundits say that the minority vote is anticipated to go for Clinton, but I suspect they are talking out of their asses.
Oh yeah, the Nevada caucuses happen at the same time, I don't have any goddamn idea how that will shake out, I mean, it's a caucus, and it's friggin Nevada.
I anticipate Chris Christie drops out before then though, possibly as early as tomorrow, I salute you, you horrible mob boss stereotype, your suicide run against Rubio may have cost him the election and for that we shall be forever grateful.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
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