Prognostication

I think we can all agree that the previous year could have gone better "dumpster fire" is a term I have seen used for it and it's hard to disagree. That said it is important to keep in mind that not only could it have gone worse, some good stuff happened too.

Despite our countries best efforts, the general global trend seems to be heading towards combating climate change, Ireland legalized abortion, representation of women and minorities in high profile entertainment seems to be up, we are becoming increasingly intolerant of sexual abuse, and it turns out we had a nearly historic blue wave in the mid terms.

Yes I know that far, far, too many things happened that would be unacceptable in a just world, but I think the trends are there and that is something to maybe look forward to.

I thought I would share a bit about what I think might happen in American politics in the next year. Since I have always been such a good oracle on that front. There is a lot to look forward too this year and I use the term advisedly. Of prime note is that the presidential primary jockeying will begin, we'll get a look at who thinks they can challenge the orange Furher in 2020, and as much as we made fun of the GOP last election, the field is gonna be pretty fucking crowded with the democrats this time around.

My guess is that Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Beto O'Rourke, and maybe Cory Booker are definitely in, we may see Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg as well. Plus of course there are likely a few(many) other hopefuls I am missing, Hillary Clinton is a dark horse possibility too, but I don't think she is gonna subject herself to that again.

I gotta say folks, I don't really like the field that much. oh any of them would be better than what we have now, but Biden, Bloomberg, and Beto all have policy ideas and voting records that I am not super thrilled about, Biden and Sanders are pretty old, which isn't super exciting to the younger crowd, and Harris and Warren are women, which, well, we saw how that went with Clinton in 2016.
 
That said I think Harris is probably the best choice of the lot, I haven't disagreed with her politics that I am aware of, and she ticks some demographic boxes that are pretty important too, but mainly she seems that she might be able to strike a chord with the progressive left while staying palatable to the more centrist democrats, but that is just me.

Apparently Jeff Merkely, one of the Senators here from Oregon is considering a run, and that would be cool and all but I dunno if he really has the national support, or even name recognition, but he's certainly been putting himself out there over the last year or so, is it a plan? We'll see soon I guess.

Anyway, my best guess for the nomination comes down to Biden, Harris, Beto, in that order. probably not the end of the world if any of them get it, but it does sort of depend on who they run against.

"But Logan, what do you mean by that?" I hear you say. Well I'll tell you, I am not so sure that it will be Donald Trump who runs for reelection in 2020. I am not saying he gets impeached mind you, I don't know that that is actually possible or even really desired at the moment but that depends on the results of the Mueller investigation which might be filing it's report in February or thereabouts. In all likelihood the results will be damaging and embarrassing enough to force some sort of action, but unless they are quite ridiculously bad any impeachment vote will die in the Senate after passing the House. What will happen is the president will find it is even less fun being president when the House is firmly against you, he's gonna run up hard against subpoena requests and committee hearings and no votes on favored legislation, and legislation he doesn't care for having a real chance of passing and I honestly think he will just take his ball and go home. In 6-8 months he will make an announcement saying "I've accomplished more than anyone president in American history, but I can't work with the idiots who don't want to make America great again. I pardon myself for anything they might think I did, even though I didn't, and it was legal anyway, goodnight."

That's my thought anyway. Another possibility is he gets primaried, but I don't have the faintest idea who would replace him in that case, Mike Pence? I can't see that happening honestly, but I am sure there is someone out there.

What I can't decide is if it makes it easier or harder to win for the Democrats if he isn't running, the incumbent advantage is real, and he does drive turnout for his own party pretty well, on the other hand it is going to be pretty fucking easy to run against him, being able to point to nearly anything he says and does as evidence against him. Those advantages might not exist if the opponent is someone more closely in touch with reality.

I realize there is an element of fantasy in my thinking, the most likely scenario is that he doesn't quit and runs again, but I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility either so that is something to look forward to as well.

In the next day or so I am gonna write some more personal stuff for the new year, but that is what was in my head this morning.