Health care, again

I admit I wasn't expecting the Republicans to pass a health care bill, hell I wasn't really expecting them to make a serious attempt since their embarrassing display of their inability to contain the "Freedom Caucus". But let's be honest my predictions haven't exactly been money in the bank now have they?

Speaking of embarrassing inability to contain the Freedom Caucus, that is what got this bill passed too, House moderates completely caved to them and gave them virtually everything they wanted, making this current bill perhaps the most cruel version it could possibly be. This is a good example of how a wingnut minority can completely dominate a party, when your margin for error is low enough that you need every vote, the worst members suddenly gain all the power.

Of course, that begs the question as to why it even got pushed so heavily, ACA repeal is just not a winning issue, it polls pretty well and people are getting used to its existence and in particular they like that preexisting conditions are still covered. Republicans got shellacked by being unable to bring the last version for a vote, so I guess they figured they needed to manage at least one of their big ticket promises in an effort to be perceived as doing something, anything. My instinct is that come 2018 this is gonna hurt pretty bad for them, red state voters are already coming to realize that they elected a government committed to reducing their quality of life, the question is how many will remember that in a year and a half, also how many will consider it a good trade as long as other people get hurt as well, which unfortunately will probably be a lot of em.

So what's next for the bill? Well if Paul Ryan and the Republicans in the Senate are interested in retaining their majority they should probably let it die there without a vote, their margin is too slim in the Senate to afford nearly any turnover in a couple of years and there will be other bills coming through that they can pass without expending lethal levels of political capital. Ryan however has shown that he is pretty dumb and more than that, absolutely willing to do the bidding of the baby in the Oval Office so my guess is we'll see a vote in a week or two and then who knows, I want to say it will fail there in a straight up and down vote, but I am not as confident of that as I should be. The Republicans are attempting to use budget reconciliation again to pass the bill and depending on how that plays out the filibuster might not be in play. However I don't think the bill as it stands can be truly justified under the reconciliation rules, and the Congressional Budget Office report on the bill will probably bear that out.
Will it make a difference? Possibly not, at least to the Senate vote, but it certainly exposes the bill to significant legal challenges that will almost certainly be brought against it if it does squeak through.

There is a chance, probably a good one, that the Senate will make significant changes to the bill before voting on it, but then it has to get approved in the House again and we do the whole stupid fight once more.

It likely wont pass, again, and it likely will hurt the Republicans badly come midterms, but if there is one thing I have learned over the last couple years it is that I should not be underestimating the stupidity of Americans.