Friday, February 10, 2017

Judicial branch FTW

Can't sleep, might as well post.

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 today to uphold a lower courts suspension of the "Muslim Ban" that The Toddler issued by executive order. This was not a surprising ruling to me, except for the fact that it was unanimous, but it is probably the final nail in the coffin for this particular executive order.

Next it goes to the Supreme Court, unless the Justice Department chooses not to appeal, which it won't. If the court votes along party lines it will be a 4-4 tie and the decision reverts to the one the Ninth Circuit gave today, if they delay matters or accelerate the selection process for the ninth judge, we could conceivably get a 5-4 ruling in the governments favor, but my guess is that won't happen, a ties is pretty unlikely too.

The difference between conservative and whatever the fuck the GOP is these days is actually pretty big, and the conservative half Supreme Court is still fairly far removed from the rank and file Republican madness, having been appointed during W's term or earlier. I am not a constitutional scholar obviously, but it does appear that the ban violates a number of provisions of the constitution, and the actual scholars on the court will probably mostly make that call themselves regardless of what party appointed them. Even Scalia light; Judge Gorsuch, might rule like that based on his history, the judges do not have to worry about reelection, which means that they can actually do their job as they feel best, and historically the conservative wing has wanted to decrease, not increase, the power of the executive branch, a ruling on this executive order will be a good opportunity to do just that.

The question is what happens next? I asked this before and I still don't think there are a lot of good answers, what if the court rules against him but The Toddler directs Homeland Security and whoever else to enforce it anyway? The court can't enforce their ruling with armed forces or anything, but the president can, would the legislative branch attempt to step in at that point or are they a bunch of gormless assholes? My guess is the latter.

I feel like we should prepare ourselves to see something like that happen, but I don't know how you prepare for constitutional crisis of that magnitude.

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