Super Tuesday 3 today, as of this writing it is all but over, with it still being too close to call in Missouri, though Cruz and Clinton will probably squeak wins out there.
Speaking of Clinton, she has to be feeling good, she won everything today, well not everything as delegates in that race are apportioned proportionally and Sanders did keep it close, like really close, but a loss is a loss and that is how it will play to the public.
I am depressed by this, I keep saying he just has to hang on until we get to more favorable states but a pretty large chunk of America has voted already and there isn't a lot more waiting he can afford before he actually needs to win delegates, perception is everything in the race and the perception is Clinton is winning a lot, and it doesn't matter how close Sanders keeps the delegate counts, he needs to actually show victories or people are going to give up .
But enough of that, what of the Republicans? Well Trump pretty much is winning this one handily, he easily dominated Florida, and Rubio has suspended his campaign because of it, Trump leads in Missouri but I think Cruz will make it up there and get a very narrow win, Trump has taken all other states except for Ohio, where Kasich has won solidly, possibly with the help of Rubio voters who the campaign literally asked to vote for Kasich there, as Rubio's 2.9% is really low even for him.
Honestly only FL and OH where important today, they are winner take all states and the others were close enough that Trump never got a commanding lead in delegates out of them, FL was worth more than OH, but not enough for him to pull ahead completely.
This means the ratfuck plan is still on for the convention, if indeed that is the plan, and if indeed the party can keep it close enough until then, at the moment Trump needs to win something like 54% of the remaining delegates in play to hit the magic number of 1237 and secure the nomination outright barring incredibly obvious shenanigans that will probably cause a riot or something. So it's possible, many(most?) of the remaining states are relatively sane Democratic strongholds, what this means is that the Republican voters will be a combination of the most hardcore as well as the increasingly moderate seeming ones, a large percentage of which might decide to go with the slightly more sane options of Kasich or Cruz just to work for the contested convention, also a certain number of Democrats may be voting in the Republican primary as a strategic move, though I suspect most of those will go Trump because he will destroy the GOP.
My prediction? Anyone who tells you they know what will happen at this point is either lying, a sorcerer, or from the future sent to stop the impending apocalypse, you can tell the difference as follows: If they are wearing normal clothing and trying to tell you what will happen they are lying, if they have a pointy hat on and are, A. Carrying around a tome of dark magic or a Monkey Paw, B. Draped in mystical amulets, or C. Have a staff taller than they are, inscribed with eldritch runes glowing with power, they are a sorcerer. If they don't have any clothes on and demand you give them some, they are either from the future or your prisoner, and you should give them some clothes you monster.
I think Trump probably takes it outright, and the party falls in line behind him like always, but that is the most boring option and I hope that we get a more amusing one, even though someone might literally die.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
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