Debate report

Fuck me that was a ride, John McCain and Lindsey Graham played Statler and Waldorf during the whole thing, Ben Carson started things off by apparently not hearing his name and getting confused and causing a traffic jam while walking out to the podiums while the announcers forgot that John Kasich was there entirely. Things started out hot, with Christie and Rubio going at it hammer and tongs, but cooled down a bit in the last hour, I will take a page from 538 and give a grade to each candidate followed by how I think it changes things in New Hampshire.

Chris Christie - A
You may not recall, but almost a year ago Christie was a serious contender for the candidacy, with strong conservative credentials and a brashness that convinced people he "tells it like it is" unfortunately and angry orange billionaire with terrible hair entered the race and sucked all the attention away from him and he was relegated to the lower tiers.
Christie had an amazing day, giving substantive policy answers while simultaneously maintaining the straight talking angry East Coaster facade that makes people think of him as genuine, it's a hard balancing act and he pulled it off very well. He also made it his mission in life to give Marco Rubio hell and attacked him effectively at will. If he had managed this kind of performance all year we would have a very different race now.

Ben Carson - C-
Benzo Carson had a bad day from minute -1, seriously, he either was attempting to make some kind of point, or honestly didn't hear his name called, but he hesitantly stepped into the hall leading to the stage and then just sort of stood there causing a traffic jam. It didn't get better from there, most of the times he was questioned he couldn't resist complaining about how he never got to talk, but he never said anything substantive or even attention getting aside from one good jab at everyone on stage claiming they were military experts anyway, he didn't do much with the spotlight when he had it, and he had the least speaking time of any candidate, basically looked like a low energy whiner, which describes sleepy Ben to a T.

John Kasich - C
In another year, Kasich would also be a decent competitor, with more humanity than Romney and better governing credentials, for a Republican of course, this is not his year, rational policy discussion is not what his voters want, and the few times he tried to appeal to the fringe he went a bit too far (See: making a department of Christian propaganda). Today it seemed like he was high or something, not his fault at the start that the moderators literally forgot to introduce him, but after that he would make the occasional strange interjection and then giggle maniacally. He did show signs of sanity during policy discussion, but again, that isn't what the base wants this year.

Ted Cruz- B
Cruz benefited enormously from Rubio being the perceived threat today, also people may have realized that the more they talk to or about him the more he gets to talk back, and no one wants to hear his horrible smug voice more than they have to. Whatever the reason, he got to give his horrible message without much in the way of opposition except from the moderators, who desperately wanted him to answer any question with an actual policy, a request he refused consistently. Not in evidence today was his desire to create a Christian theocracy in America, which was smart because New Hampshire doesn't have a huge evangelical population and would have been turned off by it, even the Republicans there probably wouldn't have cared for that message.

Marco Rubio - D-
Rubio failed miserably at every aspect of debating, the only reason he didn't get an F grade is because he didn't actually break down in tears or start slinging racial slurs while on camera. Christie took him to task early on for his insistence on answering every question with the same speech against Barack Obama, seriously, within two minutes he said almost the same damn thing three times, nearly word for word. He never recovered, he failed at messaging, and gave his opponents plenty of quotes to use against him with barely any effort, from his repetition gaffe, to quotes like "we should all get behind Joe Biden". He didn't control the narrative at all, the second half of the debate went better, but he was unable to actually provide any evidence he had ever accomplished anything, nor reassurance that he would be able to do so, awful performance, he knew it too, flop sweat was in clear evidence.

JEB! - B-
Possibly Bush's best performance at a debate so far, which isn't saying much but if the Bush we saw today had showed up earlier, there's a possibility he wouldn't be fighting for 5th place or whatever the hell he's at now. He manged to actually give some policy details, and had an effective, if clumsily executed, attack on Trump over immanent domain, which went down very well with the crowd there, and NH voters will like it too, since it is an issue with a couple of oil pipelines being built in the state. He still isn't really showing any fire or forcefulness when he talks, but at least he held his own a little bit today, I didn't end the day feeling sorry for him, and for JEB! that has to count as a win.

Donald Trump - C
Trump is so boring now, he says the same damn thing every time, "I am the best at ____, I know ____ really well, America doesn't win anymore, we'll build a wall, etc." It isn't new and fresh, it's just boring, an Trump can't afford to be boring, I said before his voters paid for a circus, and if they aren't going to get one they will just stay home, Trump needs to actually start putting out detailed policies rather than repeating "I'll be the best" over and over again, and, honestly, he's got to find some new horrible thing to say to bolster the racist assholes that are his base. He tried a bit when the issue of torture came up, saying he'd use waterboarding and any other tactic if he was president, but he held off on actually attacking a population that much, by which I mean Muslims, seriously if he'd said something along the lines of "I will have the FBI raid mosques that we suspect of encouraging terrorists and put them in Guantanamo" He might just win NH, but he didn't, and he won't.


What does it mean for New Hampshire?My prediction is unchanged, yes Trump has a strong lead, but actually going out to vote is different from saying you will to a pollster, he didn't do anything to excite his voters tonight either, I think he drops to a close third place on Monday.
Cruz has a much more solid support group, and was largely unchallenged today, I think he picks up votes from the other poor performances and wins by at least four percentage points.
Rubio tanked hard, that said he is the prettiest person on the stage, and looks count for a lot plus the establishment is pretty firmly behind him, despite evidence that they are looking to build Kasich up, I put Rubio in second, but only barely ahead of Trump.
The rest of the pack doesn't matter and will not matter for the rest of the election, it's these three we have to watch.
Short answer for Monday:
Cruz - 28%
Rubio - 24%
Trump - 23-24%
Everyone else - who gives a crap.

Two days to find out how wrong I am.